Krytyka Polityczna - Peled: Fear of instability

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Peled: Fear of instability

Daniella Peled interviewed by Jan Smoleński

02.03.2011

Jan Smoleński (Political Critique): Both Israel and Palestine responded very sceptically to the Egyptian uprising. Israel asked the USA for intervention. Hamas forbade expressing any support for protesters in Egypt and Tunisia. Palestinian Authority officially supported Mubarak. Where does this unanimity come from among parties, which usually are set against each other?

Daniella Peled*: I think that in each case the reason was the same – keeping stability. Israel didn’t support this uprising because it is Egypt’s ally. Although peace between Israel and Egypt is rather cold, the security and secret services of both countries closely cooperate. This is the second strategic partner to Israel (after the USA).

In the case of the Palestinians, there are many symptoms of people’s discontent and disappointment, so I am not surprised that Hamas forbade any demonstrations supporting Egypt. Apart from the protesting Egyptians, everybody in the region is trying to keep the status quo.

But why didn’t Hamas support those protests? After all, they are derived from the Muslim Brotherhood, which stands against Mubarak.

This is an ideological alliance, but not necessary a practical one. I think that Hamas is afraid of similar mass protests in the Gaza Strip, just like any other government in the region. However, if the Brotherhood is a part of a coalition government in Egypt, which is probable, the alliance between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood will become quite natural.

Do you think that this can threaten peace between Israel and Egypt? Or maybe Egypt will just deal with its internal problems like poverty and unemployment.

It is true that the situation in Egypt is horrible. Arabic governments often used Israel to divert attention from fatal situations in their countries. Israel was seen as responsible for many regional problems. Despite 30 years of peace between Israel and Egypt, Israel doesn’t enjoy popularity among the Egyptians. Nevertheless surely nobody wants war, and thus peace will be kept, but the question is on what terms.

If the democratic government is established in Egypt, would it help peace talks between Israel and Palestine?

Israel is less open to concessions when it feels uncertain. Instability on its southern border can mean that Israel will decide to use other measures, not necessarily military ones. Egypt was an important intermediary between Israel and the Palestinians. If Egypt doesn’t play this role anymore, Jordan will take up this position, but the weight of this ally won’t be the same. Israel is afraid of change and instability and wants to keep the status quo at any cost.

In my opinion, neither Israel nor the international community were ready for what is happening, and now all of them are trying to figure it out.

Could it encourage the Palestinians to use violence in their relations with Israel?

This can’t be excluded, but there is popular belief among the Palestinians that the second Intifada was a mistake. Violence didn’t bring practically any gains, and Israel’s response was strict. There are some signs that the Israeli and the Palestinian problems can be solved through by diplomatic measures. The situation is delicate. Economic improvement in the West Bank can easily change. Also we don’t know when elections will be called, as before that Fatah and Hamas need to reach some agreement.

In that case, can events in Egypt lead to the improvement of Palestinian democracy?

In spite of everything, I am full of hope about Palestinian democracy. Organisations of civil society are quite strong here and corruption is decreasing. Palestinian democratic institutions are in much better shape than in many other societies in the region. However there is the problem of Hamas. If elections were called now, Hamas would get 25-30 percent of the vote. So we can expect that it will be a rightful part of the Palestinian political map. The open question remains how Israel and the Western countries will treat it. Most of the Israelis want to negotiate with Hamas, but the government disagrees with that.

*Daniella Peled – a journalist and editor in the Institute for War and Peace Reporting. She runs a blog called ‘Jewish Chronicle’. Her articles were published in „Guardian” and „Haarec”.

Translated by Magdalena Szulim

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